Wednesday, July 20, 2016

Delphi and TOPSIS

The Delphi technique for group decision making involves making forecasts, or deciding on forecasts, normally in a business area (Brown, 1968).  It’s a collaborative and iterative technique involving an expert panel.  The panel members basically provide their input into a problem or forecasting area, then using the responses of their fellow panel members, adjust their responses in subsequent rounds of discussion.  These collaborative rounds are halted when group consensus is reached or after some predetermined criteria is met.  The intent is to come to a group consensus on the best, most correct answer to whatever question is presented to the panel.  It seems to be really focused on making forecasts, rather than being a technique for general decision making.

Another group decision making methodology is TOPSIS (technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution) (Hwang and Yoon, 1981).  This process arrives at decisions by having group members assign a score to various factors.  The factors or problem area criteria are weighted.  The object is to arrive at an optimal solution that is mathematically proven to be the closest to optimal.  Looking at the formulas involved, it’s pretty quantitative in nature.  It allows both positive and negative factors to be assessed in the problem area.

The similarities between these two methods are few.  Actually, the only similarity I can discern is that they’re structured methodologies aimed at deriving optimal group solutions.  The differences are many.  One uses panel of experts, the other members of the group that have a stake in the decision.  Delphi allows collaboration and iteration, while TOPSIS is focused on weighted criteria and mathematical “proof” of the goodness of the decision.

Brown, B. B. (1968). Delphi process: a methodology used for the elicitation of opinions of experts (No. RAND-P-3925). RAND Corp Santa Monica CA.


Hwang, C. L., & Yoon, K. (1981). Multiple Attribute Decision Making Methods and Applications, Springer. Berlin Heidelberg.

Unit 2 DB 1 - Adaptive Learning Image



Sunday, July 17, 2016

The Journey of a Thousand Steps...

This blog is intended to document the journey of a retired Air Force officer and his quest for a doctoral degree.  I completed an MS degree in telecommunications in 2002, and joined a college faculty in 2005.  Completing a terminal degree in Computer Science to enhance my academic career has been a goal for many years.  As part of my Futuring and Innovation course, I'm creating this blog to document my search for a program as well as my thoughts on the process as I travel through it.  There are a lot of options for doctoral level programs in the information systems world.  My criteria were institutional quality, accessibility (I travel extensively) and program focus.  I've chosen Colorado Technical University, and so far I'm delighted with my selection.  Having only completed one term, I don't have extensive experience to share, but so far I'm very impressed with the level of support I've received from the staff and the faculty members have been highly experienced and helpful.